Are Home Prices Dropping in New Jersey? What the September 2026 Data Really Shows

Are Home Prices Dropping in New Jersey in 2026?

If you have seen headlines about a cooling market, you may be wondering whether your home is losing value. The honest, data-backed answer is that New Jersey home prices are not dropping broadly, but the red-hot growth of the past few years has clearly slowed, and a few local markets, including parts of Burlington County, have given back some ground. The newest state data, released by New Jersey Realtors on October 15, 2026, covers September and gives us the clearest picture yet of this fall market.

Statewide, the median sales price was $550,000 in September 2026, still up 2.8% from a year earlier. The single-family median was higher still at about $614,000, on a 3.1-month supply of homes. So on a statewide basis, values are still rising, just far more slowly than the double-digit jumps of 2021 and 2022. Sellers received an average of 101.4% of their asking price, which means most homes are still selling at or above list. This is a market that has cooled, not a market in decline.

The contrast between the state and the county is exactly why the "are prices dropping?" question does not have a one-word answer. A statewide average mixes very different local markets, from shore towns and Bergen County to rural South Jersey. To understand what is happening on your street, you have to look at the county and the town. This guide walks through the September 2026 numbers for Burlington County in plain language, explains what each figure means, and ends with honest guidance for buyers, sellers, and homeowners. If you would rather talk it through, Bob Millaway is available at 856.426.1522, and the Ask Bob knowledge center has plain-English answers to the questions South Jersey homeowners ask most.

What Does the September 2026 Data Show for Burlington County?

The most recent county-level figures, compiled by New Jersey Realtors for September 2026, show a market that is softer than it was a year ago. The median home sale price was about $405,000, down 2.4% from September 2025. That is the first meaningful year-over-year decline in the county median after a long stretch of gains. Just how meaningful depends on which other numbers you read alongside it.

Read those six numbers together and the picture is consistent: demand has softened, inventory has grown, and the median price has edged down, but homes are still selling quickly. Nineteen median days on market is not a slow market. It is a market where buyers have a little more room to negotiate than they did a year ago, and where over-asking offers are the exception rather than the rule. For comparison, the full county breakdown, including how Burlington stacks up against Camden, Gloucester, and Ocean, is in our South Jersey home values by county guide.

Why Did the Burlington County Median Dip While the Statewide Median Rose?

The most important thing to understand about a median price is that it is not a measure of any single home. A median is simply the middle sale in a given month, so a shift in the mix of what sells can move the number even when no individual home loses value. If a month brings fewer high-end sales and more starter and mid-range sales, the median drops even though every home sold for what it was worth. That is part of what is happening in Burlington County this fall.

The other part is real: higher mortgage rates are pulling the upper end of the market down and slowing turnover. With rates near 7.3%, fewer buyers can stretch for a premium home, and more sellers are pricing to the market from day one. Across New Jersey, the statewide median still rose 2.8% because the state's pricier markets, shore towns, and strong northern New Jersey districts continue to hold up. County averages also hide big differences between towns, which is why town-level research matters more than ever. HomeCircle publishes detailed guides for the towns buyers ask about most, including living in Moorestown, living in Mount Laurel, and living in Medford.

What Happened to Mortgage Rates in October 2026?

Rates spent the first half of October near their highest level in nearly three years, then eased slightly. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.28% in the week ending October 1, jumped to 7.40% for the weeks ending October 8 and October 15, and then ticked down to 7.32% for the week ending October 22, 2026. A year earlier, the same survey put the average at 6.19%. The 15-year fixed-rate average was 6.71% in the October 15 survey.

In plain terms, borrowing is expensive and has been for most of the fall. The small dip from 7.40% to 7.32% is a welcome move, but it does not change the broad picture: rates are near three-year highs, and that is the single biggest reason the market has cooled. For the full story on how rates got here and what the move means, our October rate analysis breaks it down week by week.

What Does a 7.32% Mortgage Rate Mean for Your Monthly Payment?

Here is the math that matters. On Burlington County's median sale price of about $405,000, a buyer putting 20% down finances $324,000. At 7.32%, the principal-and-interest payment on a 30-year fixed loan is about $2,225 per month. A year ago, at 6.19%, the same loan cost about $1,982 per month. That is roughly $243 more each month, or close to $2,900 more per year, for the exact same home.

The flip side is buying power. A buyer whose budget allows a $2,000 monthly principal-and-interest payment could support a loan of about $327,000 a year ago, which with 20% down meant a home near $409,000. At 7.32%, the same $2,000 payment supports a loan of about $291,000, a home near $364,000. In about twelve months, that buyer's purchasing power shrank by roughly $45,000.

Two honest notes. First, these are illustrative numbers based on the verified 7.32% national average; your quote will differ based on your credit score, down payment, and lender, and some lenders offer buydown programs that lower the first-year rate. Second, rates cut both ways: the same 7.32% that shrinks a buyer's budget is a reminder of how valuable a low locked-in rate is for homeowners who already have one.

Is There Finally More Inventory in South Jersey?

Yes, and it is one of the clearest signs the market is rebalancing. Burlington County had about 869 homes for sale in September 2026, up 7.3% from 810 a year earlier, and about three months of supply, up from 2.7 months. Statewide, inventory jumped 12.1% year over year to 22,746 homes, with the median home spending 39 days on market, up 5.4% from a year earlier.

More homes on the market means more choices and more room to negotiate. That is good news for buyers who have felt squeezed for years. It is still not a balanced market, which is generally considered five to six months of supply, and well-priced homes in strong districts still sell fast. But the direction is unmistakable: inventory is rising, and buyers have more leverage than they have had since before the pandemic rush. To see which towns have the most inventory and the longest days on market, the Regional Market Trends page tracks ZIP-level data across the county.

Are Homes Still Selling Over Asking Price?

Yes, but less often than a year ago. In Burlington County, 41.5% of homes sold over their list price in September 2026, down from 45.2% a year earlier. Statewide, sellers received an average of 101.4% of their asking price, down just 0.3 percentage points. So homes are still routinely selling at or above list, but the days of automatic bidding wars are fading.

What that means in practice: over-asking is now reserved for the homes that earn it, meaning realistic pricing, strong condition, and a location in a desirable district. A home that is overpriced relative to its comps is far more likely to sit now than it was in 2023 or 2024. This is the single biggest change sellers need to absorb, and it is why pricing strategy matters more than ever.

What Should Buyers, Sellers, and Homeowners Do With a Cooling Market?

For buyers, a cooling market is an opportunity, but the rate environment keeps the math demanding. You have more inventory, slower price growth, and a better chance of negotiating, yet every dollar borrowed still costs more than it did a year ago. Start with a pre-approval so you know your exact rate and payment, compare quotes from more than one lender, and ask about rate buydowns. If you have flexibility on location, the town comparison tool and the best places to live guide are built for exactly this decision, and our buy now or wait analysis walks through the cost of waiting in detail.

For sellers, the message is about pricing discipline. The share of homes selling over list has shrunk, days on market are edging up, and inventory is rising, which means the buyers you attract are more rate-sensitive and more comparison-shopping. Homes that sell in this market are priced realistically from day one, presented well, and marketed to the buyers who can actually qualify. A home that sits loses momentum, and in a cooling market momentum matters more than ever.

For homeowners, the message is steadier. Even with the county median dipping 2.4%, most Burlington County homeowners hold strong equity built over years of gains, and the dip is a median, not a universal price cut. With borrowing costs near 7.3%, using a home equity line to finance wants is expensive, so the smartest moves are usually maintenance and high-ROI improvements rather than borrowing. Our home equity guide explains how to measure what you have, and the Homeowner Resource Center covers which upgrades actually add value. If you simply want to know what your home is worth in today's market, Bob provides an honest, no-obligation valuation through the contact page.